Wednesday, January 20, 2010

Exit Poll: Only 38% Said Opposition To Obama Policies Drove MA Vote

The Plum Line writes Exit Poll: Only 38% Said Opposition To Obama Policies Drove Mass Vote. This seems to be a more reasonable analysis of the Tony Fabrizio exit poll than as reported by Politico (which I won't link to).

"When voters were asked if their vote was motivated by Obama’s overall policies and the direction he’s taking the country, only 38% said they were motivated by opposition. Meanwhile, 32% said they were motivated by support, and another 27% said his policies were not a factor — a total of 59% who were either for Obama’s policies or indifferent.

Meanwhile, 44% of independents said they were motivated by opposition to Obama’s overall policies, an uncomfortable number, to be sure, but smaller than the 53% of indys who either supported his policies or were indifferent to them.

One other interesting tidbit: The poll also found Obama’s job approval running at 55%, and 48% among independents, versus 47% who disapprove.

Bottom line: These exit numbers do paint an uncomfortable picture for Obama and Dems on health care. But if this exit poll is to be believed, it’s way too simplistic to paint last night’s results as a wholesale repudiation of Obama and his entire governing agenda."

So people in a state with 98% health care coverage didn't want to support a health care bill with some obvious flaws (like paying for Nebraska in perpetuity). People won't vote for crap.

And it's important for the Dems to learn how to point out the good and effectively dispute the inevitable bad that the Republicans will point out (e.g., death panels) so that people know the difference. Coakley certainly didn't do that. Saying Ted would have wanted this wasn't enough.

1 comment:

Karl said...

You're a fan of data sets. Although not the prettiest presentation of the information, there are some graphs at which try to correlate voter turn out to party affiliation.