Ezra Klein wrote Democrats likelier to retake House in 2012 than hold Senate. "I was tooling around InTrade last night and noticed that the betting markets are giving Democrats much better odds of retaking the House of Representatives in 2012 than of holding the Senate. As they see it, there’s about a 60 percent chance that Barack Obama will be reelected as president, a 40 percent chance that Democrats will win the 20-some seats they need to retake the House and only a 25 percent chance that they’ll win enough elections to retain control of the Senate."
He got a followup letter on it. "First, if the Republicans win the White House in 2012 (unlikely but possible), I think we’d all agree that the House and the Senate will go to the GOP as well. The real question is, what happens if Obama wins reelection. In that case, Joe Biden is the 51st vote, which means the GOP needs to pick up 4 seats." It goes on to evaluate various state races and concludes it's about 50/50.
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