Monday, December 16, 2013

The "pause" in global warming comes from bad data

The "pause" in global warming comes from bad data

"Climate change deniers have jumped on a batch of incomplete, poorly-analyzed climate data which suggests the planet's warming trend is 'on pause.' If there's a pause, they argue, perhaps predictions of climate change are wrong. Unfortunately for the future of our planet, the pause only exists if you ignore a lot of temperature data.

Cowtan and geography researcher Robert Way have just published their new study in the Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society. In a nutshell, the main problem is that deniers are using surface temperature data from the UK Met Office, the region's weather service. But the Met Office has no data for key areas, including the Arctic and parts of Africa. To determine global temperature rise — and the 'pause' — the Met Office produced a global average by simply leaving out data on these regions. This is a very unreliable way to create a model of global temperature. What Cowan and his colleagues did instead was to supplement the Met Office surface data with satellite data on the Arctic and parts of Africa."

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