Thursday, October 16, 2008

The Bradley Effect - Selective Memory

The Bradley Effect is the notion that polls won't be accurate in a racial contest because people will tell the pollsters one thing and vote another way because they don't want to admit to being racist. It was mentioned when Obama ran in the primary but dismissed when he won. It's been brought up again for the general election where it's been thought to have a bigger effect than with just Democrats.

It's named after Tom Bradley who ran for governor of California in 1982 and 1986 and lost despite being ahead in some polls. Now V. Lance Tarrance Jr., the pollster for the winner of that gubernatorial contest writes The Bradley Effect - Selective Memory, in which he dismisses the effect as bad polling.

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