Paul Krugman explains it with a bit more rigor, The Non-Surge in Government Spending. "So how can we get a better picture? First, express spending as a share of potential rather than actual GDP; we can use the CBO estimates of potential for that purpose. Second, keep your eye on the business cycle — and, in particular, on how spending is evolving now that a gradual recovery is underway. So, let’s look first at a longish time series of total government spending as a share of potential GDP:"
Mark Thoma points to a few articles expressing America’s Fiscal Policy is Not in Crisis. The long term problems are rising health care costs and the immediate problem isn't the deficit or debt but jobs.
Update: Nate Sliver a few days ago on What Is Driving Growth in Government Spending?
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