Sunday, February 28, 2016

Oscars 2016 Predictions

I run an Oscar pool so I usually don't post predictions before the awards. Both because I don't want to tip my hand (though I've not done well the last three years) and because I'm usually pretty busy right before the awards. I thought about it this year, including both predictions and preferences, but just go read Vox's Todd VanDerWerff's predictions for all 24 Academy Award categories instead. I agree with about 90% of what he wrote.

I think this year all the big categories have clear favorites except for Best Picture which seems odd.

I've seen all the nominated films in 19 categories. If I catch Straight Outta Compton today it will be 20. I've seen none of the nominated foreign language films or documentary shorts and two of the nominees in animated features and song.

My favorite category this year is Visual Effects. I think all the nominated films (Ex Machina, Mad Max: Fury Road, The Martian, The Revenant, and Star Wars: The Force Awakens) are great (well I didn't love The Revenant but it's clearly an achievement) and I'm thrilled that this year there's no crap film like Transformers nominated. I also think it's a tough category to call.

If you catch the shorts, the animated ones are all kind of charming and the live action ones are (with one exception) harrowing (particularly for parents). I think Day One should win, but I have no idea what will win.

And for all the legitimate talk about #OscarsSoWhite I'm sorry that it seems lost that it was a really good year for women in films. All 10 of the nominated actresses did a great job in really good films that had good roles for women. I don't think the nominated male actors were nearly as good.

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