How Are Main Street Republicans Doing?

Unless you work as a pollster I think it's too early to be studying Who Will Win The Senate?. Looking at the presidential race, before we even have candidates seems premature too. Ben Highton thinks A big Electoral College advantage for the Democrats is looming and that there's a 80-something percent chance they'll win the presidency in 2016. Harry Enten says Democrats Shouldn’t Count on an Electoral College Edge in 2016. "An Electoral College advantage is often taken as a sign of a structural advantage, but for the most part, it’s been cyclical. The Democratic edge in 2008 and 2012 may be more due to randomness than demographics." Highton went back to 1992 and Enten back to 1900. I'm not sure which is more relevant.

But there is a trend that seems interesting to look at, how is the Republican party doing with its tea party faction.

538 reports, GOP Establishment Looks Set to Win a Bunch of Senate Primaries "Establishment Republicans look to be in good shape in many states where a more conservative candidate could cost the party a seat." They cite Alaska, Colorado, Georgia, Kansas, Kentucky, both Carolinas, Tennessee and Texas. Politico reports on How Lindsey Graham outmaneuvered the tea party.

Kevin Drum writes John Boehner Speaks Up For Main Street Republicanism "This is all about pragmatism, a cri de coeur against the Foxification of the Republican Party. And I guess it means one of two things. Either Boehner doesn't really care much about holding onto his leadership position anymore, or else he's sensed that there's a burgeoning Main Street backlash against the radicalism of the tea party wing of the modern GOP."

The Washington Post says Tea Party PACs reap money for midterms, but spend little on candidates. "Out of the $37.5 million spent so far by the PACs of six major tea party organizations, less than $7 million has been devoted to directly helping candidates, according to the analysis, which was based on campaign finance data provided by the Sunlight Foundation...Roughly half of the money — nearly $18 million — has gone to pay for fundraising and direct mail, largely provided by Washington-area firms. Meanwhile, tea party leaders and their family members have been paid hundreds of thousands of dollars in consulting fees, while their groups have doled out large sums for airfare, a retirement plan and even interior decorating." Maybe they're saving their money for later or spending in different ways (as they suggest) but we'll see if there's a different concentration of power than in any other political organization.