Iowa

I'm still finding this race a big snoozefest. I think Santorum is just the next lead in the race. The biggest thing is that so far he hasn't had anyone attacking him yet and once that starts he'll fall too. Remember he was a high ranking Republican in the Senate when Pennsylvania choose not to reelect him. He might do well in NH as he's been spending a lot of time up there. Huntsman has too, and while I think he's more conservative than Romney, he's viewed as more moderate because he believes in science (of evolution and global warming). Should be interesting to see if he's next.

Here's the results of the Iowa Caucus this time and last (data from wikipedia)



Remember Thompson? I'm surprised that Paul increased his votes so much but I think it's a matter of competition. I was also surprised that 3,000 more people voted this time than last. Given the field I would have expected more apathy but I guess that's not the Iowa way (they take their role as first primary seriously). More surprisingly is that with 4 more years of campaigning and lots of money spent (and more voters), Romney lost 6 votes since last time. This is a man who couldn't convince anyone to vote for him in 4 years.

Still I'm pretty convinced Romney will win the nomination. Even if he's second everywhere, there won't be anyone who's first everywhere so he'll collect delegates. (Though a toss up convention could be entertaining.) Then the real question is how he'll do against Obama. I think that will come down to who gets out their vote more effectively. Will conservatives vote against Obama or just not vote given two bad choices? Will Obama be able to get out the first time voters from 2008 and add new ones?