Nate Silver asks Did Gingrich's Win Break the Paradigm? and concludes, "My view is that Mr. Gingrich’s win in South Carolina alone is not enough to be paradigm-breaking. But if he follows it with a win in Florida, all bets are off. Not only would that represent further evidence of Mr. Gingrich’s strength, it would suggest that we had been weighing the evidence incorrectly all along."
Personally I think Romney is just a bad candidate (as Coakley was in MA) and the anti-incumbent tea party environment kept a lot of better candidates out the race early. Newt is what's left.
Steve Benen's explanation of How Gingrich Won SC is more interesting.
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