The Moneyball of Campaign Advertising

This was from a month ago on FiveThirtyEight, The Moneyball of Campaign Advertising (Part 1) "In other words, much of what goes into modern campaign advertising may be futile. Will this “rapid decay” convince candidates to husband their resources and unleash a barrage of ads on Oct. 30, 2012? Probably not. Might early advertising be useful for raising money or generating media coverage or other things besides moving poll numbers? Possibly yes, although here again there is only a little evidence, if that. Nevertheless, the fact a few eggheads have so spectacularly called into question the monthslong television advertising campaign suggests how little may underlie the collected wisdom of the political cognoscenti. Campaigns are spending a lot of money, but they are not playing Moneyball."