If I could vote in the Oscars here's what I'd pick. This is not the same as what I think will win so you probably shouldn't use these in an Oscar pool (though feel free to do so in mine :)
Picture - Inception - This film just blew me away. It was big thriller action flick but also was intelligent and affecting. I could barely keep up with all of it and it made me feel like I was dreaming. Where the Wild Things Are made me feel like a 9 year-old and that was my favorite last year. Not many films change my state of mind.
Director - David Fincher, The Social Network - I'd rather pick Christopher Nolan because I don't think anyone else could have made Inception, but of the nominees Fincher sustained my interest for the entire film. There weren't any weak spots.
Actor - Colin Firth, The King's Speech - He should have won last year for A Single Man. He was great in this and pulled off the stammer. Bardem was also great in Biutiful in much more understated performance. Ryan Gosling should have been nominated over Jeff Bridges in True Grit. I don't know why he got nominated for doing old Lebowski in the west. I think Eisenberg did well if you've never seen him before. If you have, you realize he played the same character he always plays, only more serious. I think Sean Penn did a better job as a real life person in Fair Game. Or maybe Paul GIamatti in Barney's Version.
Actress - Michelle Williams, Blue Valentine - She blew everyone else away. I'd like to have voted for Jennifer Lawrence in Winter's Bone who did a great job and carried the whole film herself but I think Williams did more. Natalie Portman also did a great job in Black Swan. She not only had to act and carry the film, she did the dancing. It's just that because of the role, she seemed more of a character than a real person.
Supporting Actor - Christian Bale, The Fighter - Did a great job with an over the top character. I liked the role more when I saw an interview with the real Dicky. And he pulled off being a boxer. I liked John Hawkes in Winter's Bone too. He started as a one note character and really added more depth to it. Geoffrey Rush was also great in The King's Speech. He had to say everything right before Firth said it wrong.
Supporting Actress - Jacki Weaver, Animal Kingdom - I think this was a good year for leading roles for women but not so much for supporting. Leo is (or at least was) the favorite for the tough townie mother. Weaver did that too but way over the top. If I could pick anyone it would be Dale Dickey in Winter's Bone who played a similar role but added heart to it without really changing the viciousness of the character.
Original Screenplay - Inception - The King's Speech is a great story but Inception is so deep, so layered and so original it's hard to beat. People complain about the exposition, but I think it provided a ton of information, at just the right time, in small doses and then let visuals carry the film.
Adapted Screenplay - Winter's Bone - I don't know the source material for any of these. I saw the original True Grit and thought it told some things better (like the opening setup being shown rather than described in the past tense). Winter's Bone made one-note characters three dimensional in really subtle ways (Teardrop, Merab). Ree's arc is short (she's strong at the start too) but captures her at just the point of gaining more confidence. The Social Network is the favorite and I love Sorkin dialog but the script had some holes for me. First off any female characters of note. Rashida Jones has some screen time but there's not much there. The one good Sorkin speech by a woman was over 10 minutes into the film. Also while the film does a great job at making hacking interesting (particularly the first hacking session shown) for the layman viewer, I don't believe all of Facebook was coded while drunk. I also think it probably wasn't necessary to take as many liberties with the real story. Creating facebook itself should have been interesting without adding drunk model prostitutes. I think Sorkin was remembering or probably misremembering his coke addict days too much. And if I'm wrong, maybe I shouldn't make assumptions about people's lives either. I suspect Sorkin's script has a some very interesting writing technique and unusual arcs but I'd need another viewing to pay attention to them.
Animated Feature - Toy Story 3 - I didn't like as much as the first two and aside from the last one I found the action sequences surprisingly predictable but it's still a very good film. it did have me convinced they would kill the toys off and it did make me cry.
Documentary - Restrepo - I had thought I had seen great war documentaries before Restrepo. I was wrong. Inside Job also did a great job of explaining the financial crisis. I also understand it's actually had some effect already in how academics deal with think tanks. My favorite doc of the year wasn't nominated, Teenage Paparazzo. It's bent over on it's own storytelling more than Exit Through the Gift Shop and kept my interest for longer as I didn't care for Thierry Guetta.
Foreign Film - Biutiful - I only saw two of these and hated Dogtooth. I think The Girl Who Played With Fire was my favorite foreign film of the year.
Animated Short - Day & Night - I loved the story and the inventiveness and efficiency of the storytelling.
Live Action Short - Wish 143 - All but one of the nominated films were quite dark. I though this one, about a cancer patient's "make a wish" to lose his virginity worked the best. I probably would have liked The Crush and The Confession better but both of them had issues that knocked them down for me. The Confession was obvious in a couple of places and didn't work for me while the lead was dealing with a weighty secret. The Crush was a fun (well darkly fun) story but one adult didn't really act like one.
Documentary Short - Poster Girl - This tells the story of an Iraq veteran who's now disabled and suffering from PTSD. She lets the filmmakers completely into her life and they tell an effective story. I still feel like I'm missing some important details about her time in Iraq but it's a great film. Strangers No More is a mostly feel-good story about a school for refugee children in Tel Aviv. They've lived through some horrendous experiences but the school is doing good work. Killing in the Name managed to get some fascinating interviews with real terrorists and their victims families but I don't think it's accomplished much (hopefully yet).
Original Score - Inception - I loved it. It kept me hooked the whole time and tied together the various plot lines. It's also the only one I remember. It also had a lot of depth just like the plot, watch this.
Song - If I Rise, 127 Hours - I didn't see Country Strong or Tangled but I listened to all the songs on YouTube. I See The Light from Tangled would be my second choice.
The following are the more technical awards and I'm really not qualified to judge but here goes:
Cinematography - Inception - Though it could be anyone of the nominees. I know True Grit is the favorite and even though I've liked Roger Deakins work in most everything, this was too washed out for me. Probably because I had recently seen the John Wayne version.
Editing - The Social Network - Nope, I've got nothing to say.
Visual Effects - Inception - It's even more impressive to me that most of them weren't computer generated.
Sound (Effects) Editing - Inception - This category is for sounds created for the film, think laser beams and foot steps. Knowing what it is doesn't really help me pick the film that did it best.
Sound Mixing - Inception - This category is blending together all the sounds, dialog , music and effects to create the scene and focus the audience's attention. Knowing what it is doesn't really help me pick the film that did it best.
Costumes - The King's Speech - Alice in Wonderland is another choice but I've just never really liked Tim Burton's aesthetic. I Am Love also did more with it's costumes than most films.
Makeup - The Wolfman - even though it was by far my least favorite of the three nominees.
Art Direction - Inception - It could be any of them but I thought these sets were the most inventive. I've seen period palaces and Harry Potter stuff and Burton stuff before. Inception was something new.
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