Friday, July 22, 2011

Mass Extinction Easier To Trigger Than Thought

Ars Technica writes Mass extinction easier to trigger than thought "In what scientists call the end-Triassic mass extinction, at least half of all living species simply disappear from the fossil record. The die-off didn’t merely cause ecological disruption. It was so sudden and profound that planetary chemical cycles went haywire for the next several million years."

"Rather than 600,000 years of volcanic activity choking Earth’s atmosphere with carbon dioxide, just a few thousand years apparently sufficed to raise ocean temperatures so that potent greenhouse gases trapped in seafloor mud came bubbling up. Most of everything alive on Earth was soon wiped out. Another half-million years of vulcanism were just icing on the cake. "

Thursday, July 21, 2011

Macrophotography

Caren Alpert Fine Art has a very nice gallery of macrophotography.

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The Weirdness of 10-Year Deficit Reduction « The Baseline Scenario

James Kwak writes in The Baseline Scenario about The Weirdness of 10-Year Deficit Reduction.

"The projected 2021 deficit is $729 billion, but net interest spending is $807 billion (Table 1-5). That means that the primary budget is running a surplus of $78 billion, the entire deficit is due to interest payments on the debt, and the debt has stabilized around 75 percent of GDP. This is not a great situation, but it’s no emergency, either."

"Now, you may point out that the baseline is unrealistic, and I agree. But the three most unrealistic things in the baseline cancel themselves out."

"The big policy uncertainty that hangs over the ten-year baseline is the Bush and Obama tax cuts of 2001, 2003, and 2009, which were extended in December 2010 and now expire at the end of 2012. If we extend all of those tax cuts, we will add $612 billion to the 2021 deficit (on top of $137 billion for patching the AMT). That’s real money. To which my answer is: let them expire. Let all the tax cuts expire, and there is no ten-year deficit problem."

"Instead, the Gang of Six plan proposes to cut taxes by $1.5 trillion (over ten years) relative to the CBO baseline — which means $1.5 trillion in unnecessary spending cuts. The real problems come after the ten-year horizon, when Medicare spending accelerates due to an aging population and increasing health care costs."

Wednesday, July 20, 2011

Pluto has another moon!

Pluto may no longer be a planet, but Bad Astronomy reports Pluto has another moon! "It doesn’t have a name yet — it’s designated S/2011 P1 (or just P4 informally) — and it’s only about 13 – 34 km (8 to 21 miles) across. The size is estimated by measuring its brightness and assuming it’s icy like Pluto itself — a more reflective (white or icy) object would appear brighter than a darker object if they are the same size. Since its actual reflectivity isn’t known, the size has a wide range. But it’s still pretty dinky. For comparison, Pluto itself is 2300 km across, and its biggest moon Charon is well over 1000 km in size. I’ll note our own Moon is 3470 km across, so even Pluto is pretty small."

I remembered Charon but didn't realize that dwarf planet Pluto had two other moons. They were discovered in 2005 (so I probably blogged them).

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"Mind you, Pluto was 5 billion km (3 billion miles) from Earth when this image was taken! But we’ll soon get much better pictures: the New Horizons probe will fly past the tiny world in 2015, snapping away as it does. We’ll probably learn more about Pluto in a few hours than we have since its discovery in 1930."

Monday, July 18, 2011

Days of Summer

In Focus covers the Days of Summer "Across the northern hemisphere, people are doing what they can to cope with the summer weather. Heatwaves have recently struck the Midwest and East Coast in the United States and in parts of Eastern Europe. Hot summer days also bring stormy afternoons, with downpours that have caused numerous flooding problems across parts of China. For many, though, the way to beat the heat is to get outside and cool off in lakes, fountains, or water parks, or to find a place to simply live in the moment and enjoy the sunshine. Collected below are some images from these recent summer days, and of people around the world either enjoying or coping with the heat. [39 photos]"

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The Final Image

The Final Image is a collection of the last shot of several films. Wasn't too easy.

Sunday, July 17, 2011

White House and Congressional Leaders: No Default on US Debt

White House and Congressional Leaders: No Default on US Debt "The White House and congressional leaders remain adamant the United States will not default on its $14.3 trillion national debt, less than three weeks before a deadline for raising the federal borrowing limit.  But a bipartisan deal to put the nation on a sustainable fiscal path shows no sign of materializing.

On one point top Democrats and Republicans agree: failing to raise America’s debt ceiling in time to avert a default on federal obligations is unthinkable.  Jacob Lew is President Barack Obama’s top budget official. "All the leaders of Congress and the president have acknowledged that we must raise the debt limit, and the question is how," he said."

The Giant Disconnect Between Wall Street and Washington

Megan McArdle wrote in The Atlantic The Giant Disconnect Between Wall Street and Washington. "There are people in Washington who get Wall Street, and people on Wall Street who get Washington. But they are a small minority in both places. I submit that this disconnect is dangerous."

Ezra Klein says "Read the whole thing. The only thing I’d add is that I’m often struck by how many people there are in Washington who don’t understand the legislative process, have only very vague ideas about how polarization has changed in recent decades, have no idea of the role that baselines play in the budget process, etc. These people often have other areas where they’re extremely knowledgeable -- campaigns, for instance -- but in off-years, they’re called to comment on the legislative process and they get quite a lot wrong."

Republican Deceit on Housing Crisis

This week the Democratic Staff of the House Committee on Oversight and Government Reform issued a 37 page review, An Examination of Attacks Against the Financial Crisis Inquiry Commission.

On July 27, 2010, then-Ranking Member [Darrell] Issa [R-CA] announced an investigation into the activities of the Commission. In a letter to Chairman Angelides, Ranking Member Issa wrote that, although he had hoped that the Commission would “be able to conduct a fair and effective investigation which would help Congress as it considered financial regulatory reform legislation,” he was launching his investigation in part because “the Administration and congressional Democrats have instead chosen to ram through a partisan financial regulation bill before the FCIC has completed its work.”

"These documents indicate that Chairman Issa’s allegations are largely unsubstantiated,and this report addresses each allegation in turn. In contrast, the documents raise significant new questions about whether Republican Commissioners geared their efforts on the Commission toward helping House Republicans in their campaign to repeal the Dodd-Frank Act, rather than determining the facts that led to the economic crisis. The documents also raise a host of new ethical questions about Republican Commissioners and staff, including evidence that they leaked confidential information to outside parties on multiple occasions."

It's a pretty damning review, particularly of commission member Peter Wallison. In the 70s and 80s he was on various Republican staffs including a stint as White House Counsel to President Reagan. He's been at the American Enterprise Institute since 1999.

The report says he sent to other Republican members of the committee various messages saying “It’s very important, I think, that what we say in our separate statements not undermine the ability of the new House GOP to modify or repeal Dodd-Frank.”

The report also says "Internal Commission documents indicate that Commissioner Wallison used his position to promote a theory of the economic crisis supported by Chairman Issa and put forth by Edward Pinto, a Resident Fellow at the American Enterprise Institute (AEI). This theory, that government housing policy was the primary cause of the nation’s economic crisis, was ultimately rejected as flawed by every other member of the Commission."

"Internal Commission documents indicate that Commissioner Wallison violated the Commission’s ethics provisions by leaking confidential information to Mr. Pinto on several occasions." Mr. Pinto is Edward Pinto, Resident Fellow of AEI and an executive at Fannie in the 80s.

These are the people behind the lie that Fannie and Freddie caused the financial crisis. For details of the lies see this post by David Min. In addition to ignoring facts like there were busts in commercial real estate and in other countries (neither markets affected by Fannie or Freddie) they also just recategorized mortgages in a way no one else uses so the numbers fit their outcome.

While these lies have become pretty mainstream in Republican circles, on the committee Wallison was an extremist. The three other Republican commissioners didn't agree with him. The initial report was spintered. The Democrats released their report, the three Republicans released their dissent and Wallison released his own.

"Despite repeated claims by Commissioner Wallison that the Commission failed to consider AEI’s position that the economic crisis was caused by government housing policies, internal Commission documents demonstrate that Commission staff went above and beyond in fully considering the AEI position, and that all of the other Commissioners—including the three other Republicans—rejected this position as fundamentally flawed."

Mike Konczal of the Roosevelt Institute wrote, "What interests me the most are how the other members of the GOP reacted to Wallison and Pinto’s thesis that the GSEs caused the financial crisis." The review includes messages between republican commissioner staffers wondering how to deal with an "intractable Peter" and "is peter thinking idependently [sic] or is he just a parrot for pinto?" and "I think wmt [Vice Chairman William M. Thomas] is going to push to find out if pinto is being paid by anyone."

As Krugman sums this all up, "But while the non-Wallison GOP commissioners basically agreed that the whole thing was bogus, they avoided saying so clearly. And that was clearly political. So on the question of [whether these people are] stupid versus evil, we have a winner."

The review doesn't just damn Wallison, it also raises some questions about the Republican Vice Chairman. "Internal Commission documents raise questions about the extent to which Vice Chairman Thomas and his Commission staff were providing information to, and receiving information from, a CEO of a political consulting firm who is also employed by the Vice Chairman’s law firm."

That would be Alex Brill, CEO of Matrix Global Advisors, and "an Economic Policy Advisor at the law firm of Buchanan, Ingersoll, and Rooney in Washington, DC, where Vice Chairman Thomas is a Senior Advisor". "Mr. Brill is also a Research Fellow at AEI." Thomas sent Brill copies of internal non-public draft memos, conversations, witnesses lists, media advisories, and named investigation targets.

Doesn't that sound bad?

"As the culmination of a year-long investigation, Chairmen Issa and McHenry scheduled a hearing on these matters for July 13, 2011. Despite previous reports, Chairman Issa did not invite Vice Chairman Thomas to testify. For this reason, on July 1, 2011, Ranking Members Cummings and Quigley requested that Committee staff conduct a bipartisan staff interview of Vice Chairman Thomas, as they had done with Chairman Angelides. Chairman Issa declined to grant this request. Instead, he notified the Committee that the hearing had been postponed indefinitely."

Fuck you Darrel Issa.

NASA's Dawn Spacecraft Enters Orbit Around Asteroid Vesta

NASA's Dawn Spacecraft Enters Orbit Around Asteroid Vesta "NASA's Dawn spacecraft on Saturday became the first probe ever to enter orbit around an object in the main asteroid belt between Mars and Jupiter. Dawn will study the asteroid, named Vesta, for a year before departing for a second destination, a dwarf planet named Ceres, in July 2012. Observations will provide unprecedented data to help scientists understand the earliest chapter of our solar system. The data also will help pave the way for future human space missions."

Here's a photo it took of Vespa a week ago at a distance of 26,000 miles. It's about 330 miles across. Wikipedia says, "Comprising an estimated 9% of the mass of the entire asteroid belt,[10] it is the second-most-massive object in the belt after the dwarf planet Ceres."

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Wednesday, July 13, 2011

Fry and Laurie: If Rupert Murdoch hadn't been born...‬‏

YouTube - ‪A Bit of Fry&Laurie: If Rupert Murdoch hadn't been born...‬‏ ""

Jon Stewart on Debt Ceiling

I thought Jon Stewart's opening segment last night was quite good.

Bush Administration, Not Science, Prevented Regulation of Toxin In Drinking Water

TPM states what we all knew, Bush Administration, Not Science, Prevented Regulation of Toxin In Drinking Water. "The U.S. Government Accountability Office (GAO) was asked to look into the EPA's evaluation of the known thyroid-disturbant, and found that the path to the no-regulation decision "used a process and scientific analyses that were atypical, lacked transparency, and limited the agency's independence in developing and communicating scientific findings." Instead of the EPA's usual process—which begins with creating a work group of "professional staff with relevant expertise from across the agency"—the Agency placed a "less inclusive, small group of high-level officials" in charge of the deliberations. These high-level members included officials who answered directly to the White House."

Over a Fifth of Navy Ships Aren’t Ready to Fight

Danger Room reports Over a Fifth of Navy Ships Aren’t Ready to Fight "More than a fifth of the Navy isn’t ready to sail or fight, at a time when demand on the fleet is off the charts. And the number of unready ships is likely to rise as Navy officers try to fix their chronic readiness woes."

They also report Two Bombers, 24 Hours, 100 Libyan Targets Destroyed based mostly from this interesting Air Force Magazine article, Bombers Over Libya.

Wiretapping and Cryptography Today

Matt Blaze on Wiretapping and Cryptography Today "The 2010 U.S. Wiretap Report was released a couple of weeks ago, the latest in a series of puzzles published annually, on and off, by congressional mandate since the Nixon administration. The report, as its name implies, summarizes legal wiretapping by federal and state law enforcement agencies. The reports are puzzles because they are notoriously incomplete; the data relies on spotty reporting, and information on "national security" (FISA) taps is excluded altogether."

visual.ly

visual.ly started today. "Infographics and data visualizations are shifting the way people find and experience stories, creating a new way of seeing the world of data. They help communicate complex ideas in a clear, compact and beautiful way, taking deep data and presenting it in visual shorthand. We’ve collected the best examples on the web and gathered them for you to reference, share, and enjoy."

Who's Hiring? Not Who You'd Expect

The Wall Street Journal has a nice article on Who's Hiring? Not Who You'd Expect "Some industries have significantly boosted employment over the past year while others continue to shed workers. To be sure, even those adding jobs are hiring far fewer than would be needed to put America's 14.1 million unemployed back to work."

It includes this interactive infographic (flash required)

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Lots of hiring in business services and health care, lots of losses in construction and government; the rest is close to flat.

Why Netflix’s Price Hike Doesn’t Bother Me

I mostly agree with Techland, Why Netflix’s Price Hike Doesn’t Bother Me

I still pay $20 for my original 3 disc plan. I'll probably shift to a 1 disc plan with streaming, saving $4 a month. For a lot of the people whining, I think they should remember they got streaming added to their existing disc plan for free, it wasn't going to last forever.

I still like netflix because it has a lot of discs I couldn't find elsewhere. I hope they can add more to their streaming offerings. I currently have 283 films in my DVDs queue and 135 in the instant queue. I suspect the price raise and differentiation has a lot to do with negotiating with the studios for streaming rights. The studios are trying to figure out the future and Netflix is starting to produce their own content, so I'm sure negotiations are fun.

How the Bubble Destroyed the Middle Class

It seems obvious but if you have to explain it to someone point them at this from Rex Nutting at MarketWatch, How the bubble destroyed the middle class.

"Most middle-class families didn’t have much wealth to begin with — about $100,000. For the 22 million families right in the middle of the income distribution (those making between $39,000 and $62,000 before taxes), about 90% of their assets was in the house. Now half of their wealth is gone and it will never come back as long as they live."

"Their wages have been flat after adjusting for inflation. In the late 1960s, the 20% of families right in the middle were earning almost their full share of the pie: they had 17.5% of total income. Their share has been falling steadily ever since. Now, that 20% is earning just 14.6% of all income. Meanwhile, the top 5% captured a growing share, going from 17% in the late 1960s to 22% today."

"Of course, rich folk lost lots of wealth during the panic as well. Their wealth is mostly in paper not bricks -– stocks, bonds, mutual funds, life insurance. The market value of those assets fell further than home prices did during the crash, but they’ve mostly recovered their value now. The S&P 500 SPX +0.86%  lost 56% of its value when it crashed, but it’s doubled since then. Stocks are down about 13% from peak. The rich recovered; the rest of us didn’t."


Misleading Mantra, Tax and Spend Version

Jared Bernstein Misleading Mantra, Tax and Spend Version. "You know the Republican mantra against revenues in the budget talks: “The problem isn’t that Americans are undertaxed; it’s that their government overspends?”"

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"But of course revenues tank with the Bush tax cuts, and fall off of the cliff with the Great Recession, when spending rises sharply, both due to automatic stabilizers like unemployment insurance and policies like the Recovery Act. There’s obviously much more to this analysis then a couple of lines on a graph, but the history of structural (versus cyclical) deficits in recent decades is that they are largely the result of cutting revenues rather than raising spending (and visa-versa–remember Clinton’s budget surpluses)."

Obama Sets Fundraising Record

Aaron Blake writes What Obama’s $86 million haul means "President Obama’s campaign announced early Wednesday that it has raised $86 million for its reelection campaign and the Democratic National Committee in the second quarter, setting a new record for off-year fundraising by a president."

Huh.

"The DNC is playing a major role: While the combined haul of Obama and the DNC was unprecedented, the DNC’s share is also noteworthy. The total haul was $86 million, but 44 percent of that went into the DNC’s effort to reelect Obama."

"The competition: Obama’s huge haul looks even bigger next to his GOP opponents, none of whom managed to crack even $20 million in the second quarter, and only one of whom broke $5 million (though Rep. Michele Bachmann, who has not yet announced her totals, could still exceed that amount)."

CIA Used Fake Vaccination Drive to Verify Bin Laden's Presence?

The Guardian reports CIA organised fake vaccination drive to get Osama bin Laden's family DNA "As part of extensive preparations for the raid that killed Bin Laden in May, CIA agents recruited a senior Pakistani doctor to organise the vaccine drive in Abbottabad, even starting the "project" in a poorer part of town to make it look more authentic, according to Pakistani and US officials and local residents...DNA from any of the Bin Laden children in the compound could be compared with a sample from his sister, who died in Boston in 2010, to provide evidence that the family was present."

Kevin Drum says, "On the bright side, it's good to see the CIA thinking creatively again."

James Fallows says, "Almost any step toward the end of eliminating [bin Laden] was worthwhile. But this phony vaccination campaign, if true, really pushes the boundaries of "almost." Around the world this will touch the very deepest sources of mistrust, fear, and hatred of the big, technological United States. We will (in this narrative) lie to people about basic questions of family health; we will prey on parents' concern for their children to lure them into situations where we can take samples of their tissues and fluids; we will say one thing and do another -- under white medical-technician jackets and a humanitarian guise. We will suggest that no aspect of our international presence is immune to penetration by spies."