Thursday, November 14, 2013

Global Warming Since 1997 Underestimated by Half

RealClimate says Global Warming Since 1997 Underestimated by Half "A new study by British and Canadian researchers shows that the global temperature rise of the past 15 years has been greatly underestimated. The reason is the data gaps in the weather station network, especially in the Arctic. If you fill these data gaps using satellite measurements, the warming trend is more than doubled in the widely used HadCRUT4 data, and the much-discussed ‘warming pause’ has virtually disappeared."

The planet is warming at 0.12 °C per decade. Maybe we should do something about it.

1 comment:

Dan Pangburn said...

Average GLOBAL temperature anomalies are reported on the web by NOAA, GISS, Hadley, RSS, and UAH, all of which are government agencies. The first three all draw from the same data base of surface and near surface measurement data. The last two draw from the data base of satellite measurements. Each agency processes the data slightly differently from the others. Each believes that their way is most accurate. To avoid bias, I average all five. A graph of this (with different reference temperature) is Figure 1 in http://endofgw.blogspot.com/ . A straight line (trend line) fit to these data after 2001 has zero slope (actually slightly negative). That means that, for over a decade, average global temperature has not increased. Figure 2 in this paper shows the growing separation between the rising CO2 and not-rising temperature.

The bogus assertion that the earth is still warming happens by looking at the slope of a linear regression analysis of the last 17 years which includes earlier lower temperatures. It fails to recognize the sudden change in the slope of the trend that took place in about 2001. Measured temperatures since before 1900 are accurately (R^2 = 0.9) calculated by an equation at http://danpangburn.blogspot.com/