Analyzing The Primary

At the beginning of December there were a few articles about how this primary race is different than expected.

This is in Bloomberg but I think it's the same as was widely cited in the Washington Post but is now offline: Cheapest Primary in Decade Defies Forecast "Even as experts predict that the 2012 presidential race will be the most expensive in U.S. history, a funny thing is happening on the way to the Republican nomination: It’s becoming one of the cheapest primaries in a more than a decade."

One big reason they give is that all the debates are obviating the need for expensive TV commercials. That makes sense and is I think, an improvement. They also say: "Most new political action committees that are officially independent and can take unlimited contributions to help a candidate won’t report spending until January. Their ad spending accounted for less than $700,000 of the total $2.5 million through Nov. 27."

The Week had an article, The 'cheapest' primary in a decade: 5 theories. In addition to debates they point out that viral videos are free to distribute via social media. Follow a link and Jazz Shaw points out that Hermain Cain spent zero dollars to distribute his "smoking man" ad. It didn't run on TV, it was on the web and then all the news shows played it for free.

Kevin Drum wonders Where Have All the GOP Donors Gone? Maybe they haven't liked any of the contenders or don't see a difference between them or they're giving all their money to Super PACs.

Finally, Paul Waldman wants us to Let Elections Be Elections Again. "But the 2012 Republican primaries have made that script seem outdated. Oh, we have our boring establishment candidate and his temporarily interesting rivals. But the fact that this race has been led at one time or another by no fewer than six candidates has made it less a coherent plot than a cacophonous muddle. And that's hardly the only thing different about 2012. This race has upended a whole series of things we thought we knew about contemporary presidential campaigns—so many, in fact, that it's worth arranging them in a list."

In addition to money and debates he points out that it ain't over til it's over. Gingrich came back from no where and Pawlenty probably would be doing very well if he stayed in. He also downplays the tea party because "When everyone is a Tea Party candidate, no one can be the Tea Party candidate." Also everyone is using social media and no one so far is using it in a new way.