Wednesday, December 05, 2012
Dave Brubeck, Jazz Musician, Dies at 91
Been listening to his music all afternoon. Here's the NY Times obit, Dave Brubeck, Jazz Musician, Dies at 91.
Monday, December 03, 2012
National Geographic Photo Contest 2012: Part II
The Big Picture takes it's crack at the National Geographic Photo Contest 2012: Part II. I posted the In Focus version last week. Stop what you're doing and go look at these photos.
"The National Geographic Photo Contest for 2012 ends today, November 30, but for procrastinators that thrive on deadlines, there’s still time to enter! The contest officially closes at 11:59:00 p.m. US Eastern Time. This post features another small sampling of the entrants. (We featured another selection in an October Big Picture post.) View galleries of the thousands of entrants, from which an overall winner and winners in each category of People, Places, Nature will be chosen."
"The National Geographic Photo Contest for 2012 ends today, November 30, but for procrastinators that thrive on deadlines, there’s still time to enter! The contest officially closes at 11:59:00 p.m. US Eastern Time. This post features another small sampling of the entrants. (We featured another selection in an October Big Picture post.) View galleries of the thousands of entrants, from which an overall winner and winners in each category of People, Places, Nature will be chosen."
How the Tax Burden Has Changes
Nice Infographic from the NY Times, How the Tax Burden Has Changed. "Most Americans paid less in taxes in 2010 than people with the same inflation-adjusted incomes paid in 1980, because of cuts in federal income taxes. At lower income levels, however, much of the savings was offset by increases in federal payroll taxes, state sales taxes and local property taxes. About half of households making less than $25,000 saved nothing at all. "
As I Get Older, Why Does My Memory for Names Seem to Deteriorate?
Scientific American answers As I Get Older, Why Does My Memory for Names Seem to Deteriorate?.
"Vivid, accurate memory is actually a hard trick to pull off for the human brain. Our brain is not wired like a camera; it is composed of billions of neurons that perform many jobs besides remembering. During memory retrieval your brain cheats, filling in the gaps to concoct the most likely scenario. Let us say you remember sitting around the dining room table with friends. You conclude that you were eating roast chicken and mashed potatoes—your go-to menu when hosting guests. Your brain doesn't store a full picture of the evening, but recalling one aspect of the night can cue other elements, ultimately generating a full picture. This process of association is useful for filling in the blanks; however, it can also be unreliable, which explains why eyewitness accounts are surprisingly error-prone.
With names, the problem is that they are usually arbitrary. The fact that you met Tom on the sideline of a soccer field means he probably has a child the same age as yours, likely lives nearby and might have a job common to people in your area. All those elements create a reasonable picture of Tom, except none of these clues offers hints about his name. It could just as easily be Dick or Harry."
"Vivid, accurate memory is actually a hard trick to pull off for the human brain. Our brain is not wired like a camera; it is composed of billions of neurons that perform many jobs besides remembering. During memory retrieval your brain cheats, filling in the gaps to concoct the most likely scenario. Let us say you remember sitting around the dining room table with friends. You conclude that you were eating roast chicken and mashed potatoes—your go-to menu when hosting guests. Your brain doesn't store a full picture of the evening, but recalling one aspect of the night can cue other elements, ultimately generating a full picture. This process of association is useful for filling in the blanks; however, it can also be unreliable, which explains why eyewitness accounts are surprisingly error-prone.
With names, the problem is that they are usually arbitrary. The fact that you met Tom on the sideline of a soccer field means he probably has a child the same age as yours, likely lives nearby and might have a job common to people in your area. All those elements create a reasonable picture of Tom, except none of these clues offers hints about his name. It could just as easily be Dick or Harry."
Saturday, December 01, 2012
Readability Font Size
Readability is a web service that reformats text on a web page to make it more readable (it was the basis of Safari's Reader feature). It's expanded to do more things but I tend to use Instapaper for those features. Still Reader pops up in several apps that have embedded web browsers and it's very handy on mobile devices.
When Echofon stopped supporting their iOS devices I switched to Tweetbot. It's not cheap but it is well done and has a lot of features, most importantly sync between clients (which I use between my Mac, iPad and iPhone). It has an embedded browser which I use often because people (like me) tweet links to articles. There's a nice switch on the bottom of Tweetbot's built in browser that lets you switch between a web page view and a Readability view and in Readability at the top of the page you set the theme, color and font size. But here's my issue, I really wish there was a font size between these two:
When Echofon stopped supporting their iOS devices I switched to Tweetbot. It's not cheap but it is well done and has a lot of features, most importantly sync between clients (which I use between my Mac, iPad and iPhone). It has an embedded browser which I use often because people (like me) tweet links to articles. There's a nice switch on the bottom of Tweetbot's built in browser that lets you switch between a web page view and a Readability view and in Readability at the top of the page you set the theme, color and font size. But here's my issue, I really wish there was a font size between these two:
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Friday, November 30, 2012
Should the top tax rate be 73 percent?
Dylan Matthews asks Should the top tax rate be 73 percent? This is following up on a paper that was written. I liked it because of this graph:
I haven't read the paper but that does sound a bit high to me. On a related note, if you're wondering Do millionaires move to avoid high taxes? it seems the answer is no, not much.
I haven't read the paper but that does sound a bit high to me. On a related note, if you're wondering Do millionaires move to avoid high taxes? it seems the answer is no, not much.
The rise and fall of the U.S. wind industry, in one chart
Brad Plumer, The rise and fall of the U.S. wind industry, in one chart.
"To get a sense of the wind boom over the past two decades — and how Congress and the states have nurtured it — check out this new chart from the U.S. Energy Information Administration. It shows the policies that have led to boom and bust cycles over the years. (PTC stands for production tax credit, which subsidizes new wind generation by 2.2 cents per kilowatt-hour):"
"To get a sense of the wind boom over the past two decades — and how Congress and the states have nurtured it — check out this new chart from the U.S. Energy Information Administration. It shows the policies that have led to boom and bust cycles over the years. (PTC stands for production tax credit, which subsidizes new wind generation by 2.2 cents per kilowatt-hour):"
Fighting Fiscal Phantoms
Paul Krugman, Fighting Fiscal Phantoms.
"For we have our own currency — and almost all of our debt, both private and public, is denominated in dollars. So our government, unlike the Greek government, literally can’t run out of money. After all, it can print the stuff. So there’s almost no risk that America will default on its debt — I’d say no risk at all if it weren’t for the possibility that Republicans would once again try to hold the nation hostage over the debt ceiling.
But if the U.S. government prints money to pay its bills, won’t that lead to inflation? No, not if the economy is still depressed.
Now, it’s true that investors might start to expect higher inflation some years down the road. They might also push down the value of the dollar. Both of these things, however, would actually help rather than hurt the U.S. economy right now: expected inflation would discourage corporations and families from sitting on cash, while a weaker dollar would make our exports more competitive.
Still, haven’t crises like the one envisioned by deficit scolds happened in the past? Actually, no. As far as I can tell, every example supposedly illustrating the dangers of debt involves either a country that, like Greece today, lacked its own currency, or a country that, like Asian economies in the 1990s, had large debts in foreign currencies. Countries with large debts in their own currency, like France after World War I, have sometimes experienced big loss-of-confidence drops in the value of their currency — but nothing like the debt-induced recession we’re being told to fear."
"For we have our own currency — and almost all of our debt, both private and public, is denominated in dollars. So our government, unlike the Greek government, literally can’t run out of money. After all, it can print the stuff. So there’s almost no risk that America will default on its debt — I’d say no risk at all if it weren’t for the possibility that Republicans would once again try to hold the nation hostage over the debt ceiling.
But if the U.S. government prints money to pay its bills, won’t that lead to inflation? No, not if the economy is still depressed.
Now, it’s true that investors might start to expect higher inflation some years down the road. They might also push down the value of the dollar. Both of these things, however, would actually help rather than hurt the U.S. economy right now: expected inflation would discourage corporations and families from sitting on cash, while a weaker dollar would make our exports more competitive.
Still, haven’t crises like the one envisioned by deficit scolds happened in the past? Actually, no. As far as I can tell, every example supposedly illustrating the dangers of debt involves either a country that, like Greece today, lacked its own currency, or a country that, like Asian economies in the 1990s, had large debts in foreign currencies. Countries with large debts in their own currency, like France after World War I, have sometimes experienced big loss-of-confidence drops in the value of their currency — but nothing like the debt-induced recession we’re being told to fear."
Why rich guys want to raise the retirement age
Ezra Klein on Why rich guys want to raise the retirement age.
"The first point worth making here is that the country’s economy has grown 15-fold since Social Security was passed into law. One of the things the richest society the world has ever known can buy is a decent retirement for people who don’t have jobs they love and who don’t want to work forever.
The second point worth making is that Social Security was overhauled in the ’80s. So the promises the program is carrying out today were made then. And, since the ’80s, the idea that we’ve all gained so many years of life simply isn’t true.
Some of us have gained in life expectancy, of course. As you can see on this graph, since 1977, the life expectancy of male workers retiring at age 65 has risen six years in the top half of the income distribution. But if you’re in the bottom half of the income distribution? Then you’ve only gained 1.3 years."
"If we lifted that cap, if we made all income subject to payroll taxes, the Congressional Budget Office estimates that it would do three times as much to solve Social Security’s shortfall as raising the retirement age to 70. In fact, it would, in one fell swoop, close Social Security’s solvency gap for the next 75 years."
"The first point worth making here is that the country’s economy has grown 15-fold since Social Security was passed into law. One of the things the richest society the world has ever known can buy is a decent retirement for people who don’t have jobs they love and who don’t want to work forever.
The second point worth making is that Social Security was overhauled in the ’80s. So the promises the program is carrying out today were made then. And, since the ’80s, the idea that we’ve all gained so many years of life simply isn’t true.
Some of us have gained in life expectancy, of course. As you can see on this graph, since 1977, the life expectancy of male workers retiring at age 65 has risen six years in the top half of the income distribution. But if you’re in the bottom half of the income distribution? Then you’ve only gained 1.3 years."
"If we lifted that cap, if we made all income subject to payroll taxes, the Congressional Budget Office estimates that it would do three times as much to solve Social Security’s shortfall as raising the retirement age to 70. In fact, it would, in one fell swoop, close Social Security’s solvency gap for the next 75 years."
Apple, AIG, Goldman Sachs, and Bank of America provided most of 2012's earnings growth.
Apple, AIG, Goldman Sachs, and Bank of America provided most of 2012's earnings growth.
"A striking chart from Morgan Stanley's Adam Parker shows that 2012 earnings growth among S&P 500 companies was highly concentrated, with 88 percent of it coming from the top 10 firms. I was even more struck by the inequality within the top 10. Just four companies—Apple, AIG, Goldman Sachs, and Bank of America—together provided a majority of overall earnings growth among large-cap companies."
I wonder how this compares to previous years? Note that the order of the legend is odd. It matches the order in the bar chart, which follows convention and shows the biggest contributor at the bottom, but that makes the legend be in reverse order.
"A striking chart from Morgan Stanley's Adam Parker shows that 2012 earnings growth among S&P 500 companies was highly concentrated, with 88 percent of it coming from the top 10 firms. I was even more struck by the inequality within the top 10. Just four companies—Apple, AIG, Goldman Sachs, and Bank of America—together provided a majority of overall earnings growth among large-cap companies."
I wonder how this compares to previous years? Note that the order of the legend is odd. It matches the order in the bar chart, which follows convention and shows the biggest contributor at the bottom, but that makes the legend be in reverse order.
Surprise! The abortion rate just hit an all-time low.
Surprise! The abortion rate just hit an all-time low. "No research has found a causal relationship yet. What we know is a correlation: At the same time the abortion rate took a big drop, use of more effective contraceptives had recently increased. That seems like it could be one factor explaining why the abortion rate recently dropped, after years of holding steady."
So much for abstinence only education.
So much for abstinence only education.
Israel's Rocket-Hunting Ace Got His Start Playing Warcraft
Danger Room writes Israel's Rocket-Hunting Ace Got His Start Playing Warcraft "Computer geek, keyboard combatant, soldier, call him what you will, Idan and others like him man the controls of the latest rock star in advanced military technology. ‘There are a lot of flashing blips, signs, symbols, colors and pictures on the screen. You look at your tactical map; see where the threat is coming from. You have to make sure you’re locked onto the right target. There’s a lot of information and there is very little time. It definitely reminds me of Warcraft and other online strategy games,’ Idan says."
The Gerrymander Effect, Take 2
Kevin Drum on The Gerrymander Effect, Take 2 .
"So the 2010 redistricting really was unusually partisan. But the size of the Republican advantage turns out to be about six seats, very similar to what Eric McGhee came up with. The incumbency effect is about double that, for a total built-in Republican advantage of roughly 20 seats. Accounting for uncertainty, the Republican advantage is 10-30 seats, which is right in line with how much they outperformed the popular vote this year.
I'm interested in further research on this subject, but for now we've got two methodologies that produce pretty much the same result. The Republican gerrymander following the 2010 census has given them a permanent tailwind of about six seats, and they'll keep this for the rest of the decade. Combine that with the incumbency effect, and Democrats are unlikely to regain the majority unless they win about 52 percent of the popular vote."
"So the 2010 redistricting really was unusually partisan. But the size of the Republican advantage turns out to be about six seats, very similar to what Eric McGhee came up with. The incumbency effect is about double that, for a total built-in Republican advantage of roughly 20 seats. Accounting for uncertainty, the Republican advantage is 10-30 seats, which is right in line with how much they outperformed the popular vote this year.
I'm interested in further research on this subject, but for now we've got two methodologies that produce pretty much the same result. The Republican gerrymander following the 2010 census has given them a permanent tailwind of about six seats, and they'll keep this for the rest of the decade. Combine that with the incumbency effect, and Democrats are unlikely to regain the majority unless they win about 52 percent of the popular vote."
Thursday, November 29, 2012
Daily Show on Rice Bullying
Seriously, why can no one other than Jon Stewart think to compare John McCain's and Lindsey Graham's comments on Susan Rice with their comments on Condoleezza Rice?
The GOP’s Medicare confusion
The GOP’s Medicare confusion
"Scour the various outlets for Democratic policy ideas and you’ll find plenty of proposed Medicare cuts. President Obama’s 2013 budget, for instance, includes hundreds of billions in Medicare cuts (see pages 33-37), and caps the program’s long-term growth at GDP+0.5 percent. More recently, the Center for American Progress released a 46-page proposal for cutting Medicare by almost $400 billion."
"That’s left Republicans in a peculiar negotiating position: They know they want “Medicare reform” — indeed, they frequently identify Medicare reform as the key to their support for a deal — but aside from premium support, they don’t quite know what they mean by it, and they’re afraid to find out."
"The likely deal here — which some smart Republicans are talking about — will be a Medicare “down payment” that gets us past the fiscal cliff and then a target for the Medicare savings that negotiators need to reach over the next six months. But there’s no guarantee that the state of the politics or the policy thinking on Medicare will be very different six months from now than it is today. Republican policy types need to start thinking about what they want to do to Medicare, and quick."
"Scour the various outlets for Democratic policy ideas and you’ll find plenty of proposed Medicare cuts. President Obama’s 2013 budget, for instance, includes hundreds of billions in Medicare cuts (see pages 33-37), and caps the program’s long-term growth at GDP+0.5 percent. More recently, the Center for American Progress released a 46-page proposal for cutting Medicare by almost $400 billion."
"That’s left Republicans in a peculiar negotiating position: They know they want “Medicare reform” — indeed, they frequently identify Medicare reform as the key to their support for a deal — but aside from premium support, they don’t quite know what they mean by it, and they’re afraid to find out."
"The likely deal here — which some smart Republicans are talking about — will be a Medicare “down payment” that gets us past the fiscal cliff and then a target for the Medicare savings that negotiators need to reach over the next six months. But there’s no guarantee that the state of the politics or the policy thinking on Medicare will be very different six months from now than it is today. Republican policy types need to start thinking about what they want to do to Medicare, and quick."
Inside the talks: Fiscal framework emerges
Politico reports Inside the talks: Fiscal framework emerges
"But behind the scenes, top officials who have been involved in the talks for many months say the contours of a deal — including the size of tax hikes and spending cuts it will most likely contain — are starting to take shape.
Cut through the fog, and here’s what to expect: Taxes will go up just shy of $1.2 trillion — the middle ground of what President Barack Obama wants and what Republicans say they could stomach. Entitlement programs, mainly Medicare, will be cut by no less than $400 billion — and perhaps a lot more, to get Republicans to swallow those tax hikes. There will be at least $1.2 trillion in spending cuts and “war savings.” And any final deal will come not by a group effort but in a private deal between two men: Obama and House Speaker John Boehner (R-Ohio). The two men had a 30-minute phone conversation Wednesday night — but the private lines of communications remain very much open."
"But behind the scenes, top officials who have been involved in the talks for many months say the contours of a deal — including the size of tax hikes and spending cuts it will most likely contain — are starting to take shape.
Cut through the fog, and here’s what to expect: Taxes will go up just shy of $1.2 trillion — the middle ground of what President Barack Obama wants and what Republicans say they could stomach. Entitlement programs, mainly Medicare, will be cut by no less than $400 billion — and perhaps a lot more, to get Republicans to swallow those tax hikes. There will be at least $1.2 trillion in spending cuts and “war savings.” And any final deal will come not by a group effort but in a private deal between two men: Obama and House Speaker John Boehner (R-Ohio). The two men had a 30-minute phone conversation Wednesday night — but the private lines of communications remain very much open."
Inception Infographic
I hadn't seen this before, Infographic of the Day: Inception Contest Winner! "Rick's entry shows each character as a colored line; the layers of dreams are depicted as concentric circles. Characters enter each dream level to the left. When they all start inhabiting one of the character's dreams, that character's color-coded line expands accordingly (to show that everyone is running around in his dream). As characters fall out of each dream sequence, they exit on the right of the chart. The concentric rings depict how time slows down in each layer of dream:"
Randomized Consumerism
Random Shopper is a tumblr that just started. "The chronicles of Darius Kazemi and the bot he wrote that buys him random crap." How odd.
Wednesday, November 28, 2012
Soft robots and the origins of life
"GEORGE Whitesides, head of the Whitesides Research Group at Harvard University, builds robots that move like octopuses and investigates the chemical beginnings of life"
Jeff Hawkins Develops a Brainy Big Data Company
Jeff Hawkins Develops a Brainy Big Data Company. "Mr. Hawkins, who helped develop the technology in Palm, an early and successful mobile device, is a co-founder of Numenta, a predictive software company. Numenta’s technology is based on Mr. Hawkins’s theories of how the brain works, a subject he has studied and published on intensively. Perhaps most important for the technology industry, the product works off streams of real-time information from sensors, not the trillions of bytes of data that companies are amassing."
I read his book On Intelligence and I often remember one of his examples. You probably without realizing it towel yourself dry using the same pattern every morning. Now I realize it. Just the other day I remembered this and wondered what Hawkins was up to.
I read his book On Intelligence and I often remember one of his examples. You probably without realizing it towel yourself dry using the same pattern every morning. Now I realize it. Just the other day I remembered this and wondered what Hawkins was up to.
Amazing Anamorphic Illusions!
Someone named brusspup made these illusions. The comments in the YouTube page include links to the images you can print out for yourself. I tried the Rubik's one those I can't say it worked great.
How NASA might build its very first warp drive
io9 explains How NASA might build its very first warp drive. "A few months ago, physicist Harold White stunned the aeronautics world when he announced that he and his team at NASA had begun work on the development of a faster-than-light warp drive. His proposed design, an ingenious re-imagining of an Alcubierre Drive, may eventually result in an engine that can transport a spacecraft to the nearest star in a matter of weeks — and all without violating Einstein's law of relativity. We contacted White at NASA and asked him to explain how this real life warp drive could actually work."
Warner Bros Posts Fleischer Superman Cartoons Online
Cartoon Brew reports Warner Bros Posts Fleischer Superman Cartoons Online. He's a fan:
"Warner Bros. owns the original negatives to these films and has restored them to brand new condition. It thrills me no end to be able to watch these version at will, anytime, online. The first nine are not only technically brilliant, but are some of the cleverest little sci-fi concepts ever visualized. A magnetic telescope? An electrical earthquake? Robot jewel thieves? The same kind of ingenuity behind the gags in the Koko the Clown films or Popeye cartoons is at work here.
These are some of the best cartoon shorts ever made – and were not like any Hollywood cartoons before or since. If you’ve never seen them you owe it to yourself to check them out – and if you have, no further urging by me is necessary. Enjoy!"
Here's the first, the others are linked to in the article.
"Warner Bros. owns the original negatives to these films and has restored them to brand new condition. It thrills me no end to be able to watch these version at will, anytime, online. The first nine are not only technically brilliant, but are some of the cleverest little sci-fi concepts ever visualized. A magnetic telescope? An electrical earthquake? Robot jewel thieves? The same kind of ingenuity behind the gags in the Koko the Clown films or Popeye cartoons is at work here.
These are some of the best cartoon shorts ever made – and were not like any Hollywood cartoons before or since. If you’ve never seen them you owe it to yourself to check them out – and if you have, no further urging by me is necessary. Enjoy!"
Here's the first, the others are linked to in the article.
An absolutely incredible raw image of Saturn’s swirling north pole
An absolutely incredible raw image of Saturn’s swirling north pole. There are a few pics in the article, but here's one:
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