Tuesday, March 03, 2009

Bull Market or Bear-Market Rally?

Bull Market or Bear-Market Rally?

"The current bear market, now over 16 1/2 months old, has set another new low. It continues to dominate our saga of the Four Bad Bears. In nominal terms, the decline in the S&P 500 matches the Dow Crash of 1929 over the equivalent time frame. In real (inflation adjusted) terms, it has surpassed the Dow decline. The accompanying chart is intended not as a forecast but rather as a way to study the current decline in relation to three familiar bears from history."

four-bears-small.jpg

3 comments:

Anonymous said...

The site also has this chart which shows S&P 500 performance in real terms, 1870-2009. If the trends hold we've got another 10+ years of bad results ahead of us.

Howard said...

Gee, thanks for pointing that out. :(

Anonymous said...

For the silver lining click on the "Real Prices with Shadowstatics (cpi)". Then we're part way thru the trough and expecting a bull market shortly. Shadowstatistics use the pre-Clinton definition of inflation. Thus if you believe the government has lied to us about the real inflation rate all these years start buying stock now.