Thursday, April 17, 2008

The Debate

They started on Obama's "bitter gaffe" and I'm still not happy with his response. I think he meant to say that people cling to guns, religions, etc. as political issues, not that this is why they are involved with these things in the first place. Yet he didn't make this clear and this is the way Clinton choose to expand on it.

Then they went on to the Reverend Wright. Obama said "The notion that the American people are going to be distracted once again by comments not made by me but by somebody who is associated with me, that I have disowned [the comments], doesn't give the American people enough credit."

Clinton said that this is one of the things that we heard so many different explanations about. So they then went right into the sniper comments "issue". Clinton said "I can tell you I may be a lot of things but I'm not dumb. And I wrote about going to bosnia in my book in 2004 and I layed it all out there and you're right. On a couple of occasions in the last weeks I said some things that weren't in keeping with what I knew to be the case and what I'd written in my book and you know I'm embarrassed by it. I have apologized for it. I've said it was a mistake and it is I hope something you can look over...You can go back for the past 15 months, we both have said things that turned out to not be accurate. You know that happens when you're talking as much as we have talked. I'm very sorry that I said it and I've said that it didn't jive with what I've written about and knew to be the truth."

I liked what Obama said: "But look, the fact of the matter is, is that both of us are working as hard as we can to make sure that we're delivering a message to the American people about what we would do as president. Sometimes that message is going to be imperfectly delivered, because we are recorded every minute of every day. And I think Senator Clinton deserves, you know, the right to make some errors once in a while. I'm -- obviously, I make some as well. I think what's important is to make sure that we don't get so obsessed with gaffes that we lose sight of the fact that this is a defining moment in our history. We are going to be tackling some of the biggest issues that any president has dealt with in the last 40 years. Our economy is teetering not just on the edge of recession, but potentially worse. Our foreign policy is in a shambles. We are involved in two wars. People's incomes have not gone up, and their costs have. And we're seeing greater income inequality now than any time since the 1920s. In those circumstances, for us to be obsessed with this -- these kinds of errors I think is a mistake. And that's not what our campaign has been about."

The next question was from a voter who asked about why Obama doesn't wear an American flag (pin). Charlie Gibson described this question saying it "goes to the basic issue of electability". After a meandering answer that said he was patriotic and not why he doesn't just wear the pin to get passed the issue he said "This is the kind of manufactured issue that our politics has become obsessed with and, once again, distracts us from what should be my job when I'm commander in chief, which is going to be figuring out how we get our troops out of Iraq and how we actually make our economy better for the American people."

Stephanopoulos then asked about William Ayers. "A gentleman named William Ayers, he was part of the Weather Underground in the 1970s. They bombed the Pentagon, the Capitol and other buildings. He's never apologized for that. And in fact, on 9/11 he was quoted in The New York Times saying, "I don't regret setting bombs; I feel we didn't do enough." An early organizing meeting for your state senate campaign was held at his house, and your campaign has said you are friendly. Can you explain that relationship for the voters, and explain to Democrats why it won't be a problem?"

I like Obama's answer "George, but this is an example of what I'm talking about. This is a guy who lives in my neighborhood, who's a professor of English in Chicago, who I know and who I have not received some official endorsement from. He's not somebody who I exchange ideas from on a regular basis. And the notion that somehow as a consequence of me knowing somebody who engaged in detestable acts 40 years ago when I was 8 years old, somehow reflects on me and my values, doesn't make much sense, George." But I don't have as much confidence in the electorate.

Clinton then said there was more of a relationship and they served on the same board even after 9/11. Obama I think nailed the response: "by Senator Clinton's own vetting standards, I don't think she would make it, since President Clinton pardoned or commuted the sentences of two members of the Weather Underground, which I think is a slightly more significant act than me serving on a board with somebody for actions that he did 40 years ago." So Obama can dish it out, even while lamenting the need to do so.

It took 50 minutes before the questions were about real issues. The first one was about Iraq. But Charlie Gibson turned it into something stupid. "So if the military commanders in Iraq came to you on day one and said this kind of withdrawal would destabilize Iraq, it would set back all of the gains that we have made, no matter what, you're going to order those troops to come home?" The obvious answer is no, smart people change their positions as information changes and that the Bush administration has demonstrated it's incapable of this. Clinton did okay saying "So the bottom line for me is, we don't know what will happen as we withdraw. We do know what will happen if we stay mired in Iraq. The Iraqi government will not accept responsibility for its own future." but Obama did much better saying "Because the commander in chief sets the mission, Charlie. That's not the role of the generals. And one of the things that's been interesting about the president's approach lately has been to say, well, I'm just taking cues from General Petraeus."

The next question was about Iran getting nuclear weapons and I thought Clinton did much better. Obama said he wouldn't allow it but wasn't specific other than saying nothing was off the table. Clinton talks about some specific diplomatic measures she'd use with Iran and other Arab nations.

Then they went to taxes and the first question was dumb. "Two-part question: Can you make an absolute, read-my-lips pledge that there will be no tax increases of any kind for anyone earning under $200,000 a year? And if the economy is as weak a year from now as it is today, will you -- will you persist in your plans to roll back President Bush's tax cuts for wealthier Americans?" Can't we get passed these "pledges"? And to my dismay both Clinton and Obama took the bait without explicitly saying the line that Bush senior got caught up on. Was anyone else surprised that middle class was defined as earning up to quarter million dollars a year?

They followed up with questions about capital gains taxes and this did trip up Obama a bit more than Clinton. First off Charlie's question was dumb again: "It's now 15 percent. That's almost a doubling if you went to 28 percent. But actually Bill Clinton in 1997 signed legislation that dropped the capital gains tax to 20 percent. And George Bush has taken it down to 15 percent. And in each instance, when the rate dropped, revenues from the tax increased. The government took in more money. And in the 1980s, when the tax was increased to 28 percent, the revenues went down. So why raise it at all, especially given the fact that 100 million people in this country own stock and would be affected?" The obvious answer is that circumstances might be different and while cap gains rates certainly influence Wall Street they are not the only thing that do. Obama again meandered and talked about fairness. Clinton had a better answer about investing in infrastructure and energy and fixing housing markets. Charlie then got her to answer about cap gains and she said "I wouldn't raise it above the 20 percent if I raised it at all. I would not raise it above what it was during the Clinton administration."

Clinton then brought up that Obama wants to raise the cap on payroll taxes (which is currently at $97K for social security). She won't do that. Obama says we have to keep social security solvent and only 6% of the country makes more than 100K. Gibson correctly pointed out "But Senator, that's a tax. That's a tax on people under $250,000." For a candidate that's supposed to be about hope and honesty and being clear, he wasn't. They went back and forth a bit but Clinton won that pretty easily.

Then they talked about gun control and both said they supported some kind of registration or limitation but respected the 2nd amendment. It was a wash. Then they talked about affirmative action, I think Clinton spoke a little clearer on the topic but neither really said much. On gas prices and getting advice from Bush it was pretty uninteresting.

Overall, not much there. I think Obama had an off night and if he needed to catch up, I don't think this helped or hurt him.

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